研究报告9（2009-12-27）

小李飞刀1

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:43.5pt;margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><font color="#b34d61"><font size="5"><font face="仿宋_GB2312"><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">离</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">2009</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">年敲钟还有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">4</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">天，上周我们估计跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">50-100</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">点，结果符合。由于日均成交量仅</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">1000</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">亿上下，基本上就是地量了。可以在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">3050</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">大量买入，完成建仓。明年一拉高就有利可图。判断的基础是，朝下的空间小，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">3050</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">2600</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">450</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">点，朝上的空间大，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">4500-3050</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">，有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">1450</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">点，所以应当买入。最后几天，即使有震荡，也不会太大。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt"><p></p></span></font></font></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:43.5pt;margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><font color="#b34d61"><font size="5"><font face="仿宋_GB2312"><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">可以观察</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">1</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">个股票。人福科技</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">600079</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">，现价</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">14.29</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">元，该股是医药股，三季报每股收益</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">0.41</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">元，比去年一年收益涨一倍，预期全年每股收益</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">0.53</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">元，市盈率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">26.96</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">，在股价跌破</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">14</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">时可以买入。总股本</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">4.7159</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">亿股，流通</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">3.25</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">亿股，资本公积金</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">1.564</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">元，可分配利润</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">0.93</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">元，均比较好。它在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">2007</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">年每股收益</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">0.17</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">元，涨到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt">16.34</span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">元。今年是当年的三倍，所以有想象力。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt"><p></p></span></font></font></font></p>